Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization said in a seasonal outlook on Wednesday, Oct. 21 that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific may reach about 3.8°C above average for November–January, a three‑month anomaly higher than any on record.
- The United Nations urged urgent anticipatory action and released initial emergency funding after the WMO forecast, with the UN aid chief warning tens of millions could be pushed into need and about 50 million people could face increased hunger.
- NASA satellite data and ocean scientists report a large warm‑water bulge in the eastern Pacific that has already raised local sea level by roughly 30–40 cm in places, increasing the short‑term risk of coastal flooding and erosion from Mexico to Ecuador.
- Observable impacts tied to the strengthening El Niño include severe wildfires in Indonesia, an unusually active eastern‑Pacific hurricane season, and reduced monsoon rainfall in parts of India, prompting national forecasters and relief agencies to step up preparedness.
- Forecasters warn outcomes will vary by region because El Niño shifts odds rather than dictating specific weather; experts say the event could cascade into 2027 through interactions with other climate drivers and remain a major test for humanitarian and food systems.