Overview

• There is a 55% chance of La Niña conditions for September–November, rising to about 60% for October–December, with El Niño considered unlikely.
• ENSO has been neutral since March 2025, and the WMO projects above‑normal temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere and large parts of the Southern Hemisphere this season.
• The Met Office says any La Niña influence on the UK will likely emerge gradually, with signals not expected before October, and notes La Niña can shape winter patterns.
• Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology currently forecasts neutral ENSO through at least January, highlighting model disagreement and uncertainty despite some indications of borderline La Niña levels.
• WMO chief Celeste Saulo says seasonal ENSO forecasts provide vital climate intelligence that supports preparedness and yields economic benefits for sectors such as agriculture, energy, health and transport.