Overview

• The new WMO outlook puts the probability of La Niña conditions in September–November at about 55%, with a 45% chance of continued neutral conditions and little likelihood of El Niño before December.
• La Niña typically strengthens trade winds and shifts pressure and rainfall patterns, producing regionally divergent outcomes that can include both drought and heavier-than-usual rain.
• Despite potential cooling in the equatorial Pacific, the WMO expects global averages to remain above historical baselines due to the elevated background of warming.
• WMO chief Celeste Saulo underscores the value of seasonal forecasts for agriculture, energy, health and transport, saying such guidance has already saved thousands of lives.
• German services expect a wet, changeable start to autumn driven by Atlantic lows, with experts judging the La Niña signal relatively weak for Germany as the BSH reports North Sea surface waters around 2°C above normal.