Overview

• The agency says a new El Niño is unlikely through December and assigns roughly a 45% chance to neutral conditions for September to November.
• Seasonal guidance projects above‑average temperatures across large areas of both hemispheres from September to November even if La Niña develops.
• Expected patterns resemble a moderate La Niña, with shifts in winds, air pressure and rainfall that can bring drought in some regions and heavy rain in others.
• Pacific sea‑surface temperatures have been near average since March following the 2023–24 El Niño that helped drive record global heat.
• The WMO says early preparedness for ENSO impacts has already saved lives and can cut losses across agriculture, energy, health and transport.