Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization issued a clear update on Thursday saying El Niño is firmly established and is nearly certain to persist through February 2027.
- Ocean measurements show the Niño 3.4 index around +2.2–2.6°C above normal and an unusually warm subsurface reservoir with pockets more than 8°C above average, signals that the event is intensifying toward a very strong or 'super' El Niño.
- Early, concrete impacts are already reported, including severe drought in parts of Central America, widespread wildfires and haze in Indonesia, and Panama Canal transit limits to conserve water.
- Forecasters expect uneven regional seasonal shifts that could mean wetter winters for parts of the U.S. South and northwest Europe, below‑normal snowfall in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and India facing warmer winter risks and reduced rains for some crops.
- The WMO and UN have launched an unprecedented mobilisation of national meteorological services to strengthen forecasts and early warnings, and governments have begun public preparedness measures such as household guidance and contingency planning.