Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization projected sea‑surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific could reach as high as 3.8°C between November 2026 and January 2027, a value the agency said is outside historical records.
- International centres including IRI and NOAA and NASA satellite data show strong model agreement and real‑time signals, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies above +3°C and visible sea‑color changes tied to reduced upwelling.
- The United Nations opened an initial US$50 million emergency allocation to help 11 vulnerable countries and warned roughly 50 million people could face increased food insecurity without early action.
- Early impacts are already reported in Chile, where unusually heavy October rains have disrupted copper mining, delayed planting and raised risks to farms and transport routes.
- Agencies stress major regional uncertainty and urge governments to use national forecasts, early‑warning systems and contingency plans now to reduce human and economic harm and limit secondary effects such as higher food prices and transport disruption.