Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization and UN officials warned on Wednesday that the 2026–27 El Niño may reach an extraordinary three‑month Niño 3.4 anomaly near +3.8°C peaking around December, a value the WMO says lies beyond its four‑decade monitoring charts.
- Satellite and reanalysis data show extreme ocean warming and an eastern Pacific ‘bulge’ that has raised local sea levels by about 30–40 cm in places, creating heightened coastal flood and erosion risk from Mexico to Chile and northward toward California.
- The United Nations has mobilized initial funding and urged rapid anticipatory action because agencies estimate tens of millions could face worsened hunger and that the window to preposition supplies and finance is short.
- Regional forecasts point to a mix of impacts: drier conditions and wildfire risk in Southeast Asia and parts of India, heavier rains and floods in parts of South America and East Africa, and a higher chance of wetter, stormier winters and more coastal storms for northwest Europe and the U.S. East Coast.
- Scientists caution that some extreme daily sea‑surface readings are preliminary and differ from official monthly indices so monitoring and forecasts remain active while climate change raises the odds of larger, compound hazards that could amplify human and economic harm.