Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization said Tuesday there is about an 80 percent chance El Niño will form between June and August and near or above 90 percent chance it will persist by November.
- Forecasters point to an unusually warm subsurface reservoir in the tropical Pacific and eastward-moving Kelvin waves detected by satellites as the physical drivers increasing the odds and speeding surface warming.
- Most models now project at least a moderate event with a non-negligible chance of a strong episode, but agencies warn timing and exact regional impacts remain uncertain because atmosphere–ocean coupling can still change.
- Regional agencies are already issuing guidance: Australia expects hotter, drier conditions and higher fire risk; India’s meteorological service flagged a likely monsoon reduction to about 90 percent of long-period average; other forecasts note varied local outcomes such as persistent drought in parts of the U.S. Northeast.
- Scientists and UN officials stress that background human-caused warming will amplify El Niño’s effects on heatwaves, heavy rainfall, drought and marine heat, and they urge preparedness in water, agriculture, health, energy and coastal management.