Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization's Global Seasonal Climate Update projects tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies could reach about 3.8°C above average for November 2026–January 2027, a level the WMO called "off the monitoring charts."
- NASA and JPL satellite altimetry in October show a large warm, high sea‑level bulge across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that closely resembles October 1997, a pattern linked to some of the strongest past El Niño impacts.
- NOAA's October 8 outlook gave an 83 percent chance that a strong‑to‑very‑strong El Niño will persist into the first three months of 2027, signalling extended risks for global seasonal weather patterns.
- The United Nations and relief agencies warn that the strengthening event raises the likelihood of cascading shocks—extreme heat, drought and floods—that could worsen food and water insecurity across Latin America, Africa, Asia and Pacific island states and are already being linked to swollen rivers in parts of South America and worsening fires in Borneo.
- New peer‑reviewed research published in Science Advances finds that knowing the Pacific Ocean's initial state can improve one‑year ENSO forecast skill, offering a path to earlier warnings though the method is not yet in operational forecasting systems.