Overview

• There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, up from 40% in the 2020 forecast.
• The five-year average temperature for 2025–2029 has a 70% probability of topping the Paris Agreement’s more ambitious 1.5°C target.
• Climate models show an 80% likelihood of setting a new annual heat record by 2029 and identify a 1% chance of exceeding 2°C before 2030.
• Precipitation forecasts for 2025–2029 indicate wetter conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia alongside drier-than-average trends in the Amazon.
• Arctic winters are projected to warm more than three times faster than the global mean, driving accelerated sea ice loss and stressing polar ecosystems.