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3w ago

WMO Predicts 86% Chance of Breaching 1.5°C Warming Threshold Within Five Years

The forecast points to more frequent extreme weather across vulnerable regions

FILE - Ricky Leath, an outreach specialist with the City of Miami, talks with Bei Zhao, right, as he works with the Miami-Dade County Homeless Trust to distribute bottles of water and other supplies to the homeless population, helping them manage high temperatures, May 15, 2024, in Miami. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File)
FILE - A man arranges ice blocks to sell at his stall in Ahmedabad, India, April 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Ajit Solanki, File)
FILE - Firefighters watch a helicopter drop water on the Palisades Fire in Mandeville Canyon in Los Angeles, Jan. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
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Overview

  • Analysis from the World Meteorological Organisation and UK Met Office shows an 86% probability that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
  • There is an 80% chance that global temperatures will set a new annual record within the same five-year period.
  • For the first time climate models indicate a small but non-zero (around 1%) possibility of global average temperatures surpassing 2°C before 2030.
  • Current observations place the world’s average temperature at about 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, underscoring a sustained warming trend.
  • The WMO also forecasts above-average May–September rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia; Arctic temperatures are expected to rise at more than three times the global rate.