Overview

• There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will exceed 2024’s record as the hottest on record.
• The WMO reports an 86% probability that one of the next five years will surpass the 1.5°C mark above pre-industrial levels.
• Models indicate a 70% likelihood that the average temperature for 2025–2029 will breach the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
• Arctic regions are projected to warm more than three and a half times faster than the global average, driving further ice loss.
• For the first time, climate models assign a 1% chance of a year exceeding 2°C warming before 2030, underscoring rising long-term risks.