Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization said Tuesday there is about an 80% chance El Niño will develop between June and August and roughly a 90% chance conditions will persist into November.
- Recent observations show sea‑surface warming in the central‑eastern equatorial Pacific with unusually warm subsurface reservoirs that support development, though models disagree on whether the event will be moderate or reach strong levels.
- The UN and WMO warned the event will raise global temperatures and raise the odds of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rain, and they urged governments and climate‑sensitive sectors to use seasonal forecasts and early warnings to prepare.
- Regional outlooks point to varied impacts: reduced monsoon rains over parts of South Asia, drier conditions in Central America and Australia, wetter conditions in parts of the southern U.S. and southern South America, and a likely shift toward more Pacific hurricane activity with a quieter Atlantic season.
- Locally, communities already experiencing stress from drought will feel intensified effects such as higher daytime heating and water shortages, and experts note the spring predictability barrier means peak strength and exact timing remain uncertain so planning now can reduce harm.