Overview
- The shutdown has paused BLS, Census and BEA releases, leaving a second straight month without an official jobs report.
- ADP reported a 42,000 October gain in private payrolls with pay up 4.5% year over year, as hiring concentrated in trade and education and health while information and professional services shed jobs.
- State-compiled unemployment insurance estimates from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan put initial claims near 219,000 last week, down from 232,000 the week prior.
- Inflation signals conflict, with State Street’s PriceStats showing a 2.66% annual rise in September while Adobe’s online price index showed a 2.9% annual decline in October.
- Other private readings show a cooler backdrop as Indeed postings hit their lowest since 2021, Challenger announced job cuts surged to 153,074 in October, Chicago Fed indicators point to gradual labor cooling, Bank of America paycheck data show no fresh deceleration, and Gusto finds small-business hiring and quits rates easing.