Overview
- Futures pricing jumped to roughly 70%–75% odds of a 25-basis-point cut on Dec. 9–10 after John Williams said he sees “room for a further adjustment” in the near term, which would lower the federal funds range to 3.5%–3.75%.
- Stocks and Treasuries advanced and bitcoin rebounded as investors repriced the path of policy following Williams’ prepared remarks in Santiago, Chile.
- Williams described policy as “modestly restrictive,” said downside risks to employment have increased, and noted inflation risks have “lessened somewhat” despite progress stalling near 3%.
- Other officials urged caution, with Boston’s Susan Collins and Dallas’s Lorie Logan signaling a preference to hold rates, echoing FOMC minutes that recorded “strongly differing views” on a December move.
- Policy deliberations are complicated by missing government data after a 43‑day shutdown, with October CPI and jobs reports canceled and the delayed September report showing 119,000 jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.4%.