Overview
- New York Fed President John Williams said he sees room for a further near‑term adjustment to bring policy closer to neutral, signaling openness to another cut in prepared remarks delivered in Santiago, Chile.
- Futures pricing shifted sharply, with CME FedWatch showing roughly 70%–75% odds of a 25‑basis‑point cut in December, up from about 35%–40% a day earlier.
- Stocks rebounded on the remarks and risk assets climbed, with major U.S. indexes advancing and bitcoin recovering losses as two‑year Treasury yields edged lower.
- FOMC minutes recorded “strongly differing views” on a December move, and officials remained split in public comments, with Susan Collins and Lorie Logan cautioning against more easing and others such as Christopher Waller backing a cut.
- Decision‑making is complicated by missing government data after a 43‑day shutdown, with October CPI and jobs reports canceled and the latest delayed read showing 119,000 September jobs added and unemployment up to 4.4%.