Overview
- William Blair initiated coverage of Circle with an Outperform rating, calling the company the most important stablecoin player and highlighting USDC’s potential to power cross‑border B2B payments.
- Bernstein projects USDC supply could approach $220 billion by 2027 for roughly one‑third stablecoin market share, with the overall market estimated near $670 billion.
- William Blair models USDC’s market cap near $150 billion by 2027 and says Circle’s adjusted EBITDA could top $1 billion under adoption scenarios.
- Bernstein warns earnings are sensitive to rates, estimating every 25 bp cut trims 2027 revenue by about 9% and EBITDA by 11%, yet still sees profitability with roughly $668 million in EBITDA if rates fall below 2%.
- Analysts point to the GENIUS Act’s federal framework, accelerating USDC activity, major exchange partnerships, and Circle’s Payments Network plus Arc as key drivers for commercial payments adoption.