Overview
- Long-term DWD analyses show the chance of Christmas snow has dropped by about 13 percentage points nationwide since 1961–1990, with regional declines up to 44 percentage points, and the last widespread white Christmas was in 2010.
- Experimental long‑range guidance from sources discussing NOAA and ECMWF points to a generally mild December, yet a weakened polar vortex near the holidays could open the door to Arctic air and brief wintry periods.
- Regional assessments remain cautious, with meteorologist Dominik Jung putting Munich’s odds roughly in the 15–30 percent range, higher than many lowland areas but still not likely.
- A 42‑day outlook highlighted by wetter.de suggests northern cities such as Hamburg face a greater risk of rain than snow, with a brief colder spell possible just before Christmas and a turn wetter and milder into early January.
- Folk predictions from the so‑called 100‑year calendar call for snow lasting to Christmas, but meteorologists note the method lacks scientific validity.