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yesterday

Wildfire Smoke Already Kills Tens of Thousands in the U.S., With Deaths Projected to Top 70,000 Annually by 2050

New Nature studies say smoke-related mortality carries economic damages that exceed other U.S. climate harms.

Two residents watch as the Pickett Fire burns in the distance, in Pope Valley (Napa County) on Aug. 22.
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A postal carrier makes deliveries in San Francisco, the mid-day sky darkened and orange from smoke wafting in from wildfires burning hundres of miles away.

Overview

  • Peer‑reviewed modeling estimates roughly 41,400 excess U.S. deaths each year today from wildfire smoke, more than double prior assessments.
  • Under a high‑emissions path, annual U.S. smoke deaths are projected to rise above 70,000 by 2050, with damages valued at about $608 billion per year.
  • Researchers link mortality to PM2.5 from smoke using national death records and machine‑learning models, noting evidence that wildfire particles can be more toxic than other pollution.
  • The burden reaches every region, with the largest projected increases in California, New York, Washington, Texas, and Pennsylvania as western wildfire emissions could climb up to 482% by the mid‑2050s.
  • A companion global analysis projects up to about 1.4 million premature deaths annually worldwide by century’s end, while U.S. policy debates continue as the EPA takes public comment on rescinding the 2009 Endangerment Finding through Sept. 22.