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13h ago

Wildfire Smoke Already Kills 40,000 Americans a Year, With Deaths Projected to Top 70,000 by 2050

New Nature research identifies wildfire smoke as the most costly U.S. climate health hazard.

Two residents watch as the Pickett Fire burns in the distance, in Pope Valley (Napa County) on Aug. 22.
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A postal carrier makes deliveries in San Francisco, the mid-day sky darkened and orange from smoke wafting in from wildfires burning hundres of miles away.

Overview

  • The U.S. analysis attributes roughly 41,000 current annual premature deaths to smoke PM2.5 and projects a 64–73% rise by midcentury under high emissions to about 70,000 deaths per year.
  • Monetized damages are estimated at about $608 billion annually by 2050, surpassing other quantified climate-related costs in the U.S.
  • Researchers linked climate, fire activity, smoke transport and mortality using satellite-derived surface pollution and county death records from 2006–2019, then projected outcomes through 2050.
  • Risk is nationwide but uneven, with the largest increases in California—including more than 1,100 additional deaths a year in Los Angeles County—and substantial rises in New York, Washington, Texas and Pennsylvania influenced by long-range smoke.
  • A companion global study projects up to 1.4 million premature deaths per year later this century, and the authors say emissions cuts, fuel management and wider access to indoor air filtration can reduce harm.