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Wild Reindeer Face Collapse by Century’s End Without Emissions Cuts

Models built on a 21,000-year reconstruction predict that current warming trajectories will decimate reindeer herds, undermine tundra plant diversity, jeopardize Arctic food security.

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Overview

  • The Science Advances study finds that global wild reindeer populations could decline by nearly 60 percent by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario.
  • Researchers used fossils, ancient DNA and computer models to reconstruct reindeer abundance and distribution over the past 21,000 years, comparing past warming events with future projections.
  • North American caribou are projected to suffer the steepest losses, with herds in Alaska and Canada potentially shrinking by about 80 percent under high-emissions pathways.
  • Declines threaten to reduce tundra plant diversity, release soil carbon, exacerbate warming through ecological feedbacks in Arctic ecosystems.
  • Authors call for deep greenhouse-gas cuts alongside bolstered wildlife management, highlighting Indigenous-led conservation as vital to protect ecosystems, communities, remaining herds.