Overview
- Nationwide protests continue under rolling communication blackouts as violence intensifies and independent verification of casualties remains elusive.
- An Al Jazeera analysis argues the Islamic Republic functions as a theocratic security state under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with overlapping coercive institutions including the IRGC, Basij, police and intelligence services.
- The piece contends that large demonstrations alone are insufficient without elite paralysis or defection, a dynamic central to 1979 that has not occurred in the current unrest.
- It warns that external military action would only trigger a genuine regime crisis if it removed Khamenei and could otherwise consolidate loyalist unity.
- A Times column advocates for Reza Pahlavi as a unifying opposition figure and says President Donald Trump is weighing options such as strikes, Starlink connectivity and cyber operations, presenting these as speculative policy debates.