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Why Iran’s Unrest Is Not a 1979 Replay

Analysts point to a cohesive, ideologically vetted security apparatus that constrains prospects for regime collapse.

Overview

  • Nationwide protests continue under rolling communication blackouts as violence intensifies and independent verification of casualties remains elusive.
  • An Al Jazeera analysis argues the Islamic Republic functions as a theocratic security state under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with overlapping coercive institutions including the IRGC, Basij, police and intelligence services.
  • The piece contends that large demonstrations alone are insufficient without elite paralysis or defection, a dynamic central to 1979 that has not occurred in the current unrest.
  • It warns that external military action would only trigger a genuine regime crisis if it removed Khamenei and could otherwise consolidate loyalist unity.
  • A Times column advocates for Reza Pahlavi as a unifying opposition figure and says President Donald Trump is weighing options such as strikes, Starlink connectivity and cyber operations, presenting these as speculative policy debates.