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Wholesale Turkey Prices Surge, But Deep Retail Discounts Trim Some Thanksgiving Baskets

Fact-checkers caution that widely cited 25% “price drop” claims rely on noncomparable baskets.

Overview

  • USDA reporting shows wholesale frozen turkey prices up about 40% year over year to roughly $1.32 per pound, with supply hit by avian diseases and recent processing-plant closures.
  • Purdue analysts estimate an average 15‑pound turkey around $30 this year, citing elevated feed costs and tariff-affected inputs as key pressures.
  • Major retailers are pushing low-cost holiday bundles—Walmart’s meal near $40, Kroger under $4.75 per person, Aldi about $40 for 10, Target under $20 for four—and regional promotions include Meijer frozen turkeys at $0.49 per pound and select Meijer Market free-turkey-with-$75 offers.
  • Wells Fargo finds a traditional menu can cost 2% to 3% less for shoppers using store brands or curated bundles even as the food-at-home CPI is up 2.7% from a year ago.
  • FactCheck.org says the touted 25% decline in Walmart’s meal overstates savings, calculating a roughly 6.5% drop when comparing equivalent items to last year.