Overview
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimates $100–$150 billion in refunds in early 2026, roughly $1,000 to $2,000 per household, citing unadjusted withholding.
- White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says refunds are projected to be the largest on record, pointing to private analysis estimating about an extra $1,000 per filer.
- The GOP-led House Ways and Means Committee projects $191 billion in net new tax relief in 2026, with some taxpayers seeing about a $1,000 boost to refunds.
- Key drivers include auto-deductibility and no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security, which officials say will first inflate refunds then raise take-home pay as withholding changes.
- Analysts caution that benefits vary by eligibility, filing status and income, with reports indicating lower-income households may receive smaller gains.