Overview
- National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett predicted the “biggest refund cycle ever” in spring 2026, saying many taxpayers will receive substantially larger checks.
- President Trump said many families would save $11,000 to $20,000 next year, while an administration fact sheet projects $91 billion in additional refunds plus $30 billion from reduced withholding.
- The IRS did not update 2025 withholding tables, so much of the new tax relief is expected to show up as larger lump-sum refunds rather than higher paychecks during the year, according to Tax Foundation analysis.
- Congress’s enacted package makes the 2017 individual rates permanent, raises the standard deduction by about $1,500 per family, boosts the Child Tax Credit to $2,200 with indexing, and exempts tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits for seniors from federal income tax.
- Independent analyses estimate average refund increases of roughly $1,000 for many filers, with larger gains concentrated among higher earners in high-tax states and among tipped workers, heavy overtime earners, seniors and larger families; the IRS has begun guidance on new “Trump Accounts” that carry a one-time $1,000 contribution for eligible newborns.