Overview
- Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said refunds could be about one‑third larger next season, with Piper Sandler estimating roughly $91 billion more in refunds.
- Policy analysts estimate the average refund increase near $1,000 but say typical W‑2 workers without children will see little year‑over‑year change.
- Higher‑income filers in high‑tax states and people who can deduct tips or overtime or claim a new senior break are positioned for the largest gains.
- The IRS left 2025 payroll withholding guidance in place, so many households will receive tax relief as larger lump‑sum refunds rather than higher take‑home pay.
- Key changes include a $31,500 family standard deduction, a $2,200 per‑child credit indexed to inflation, and an extra $6,000 deduction for some seniors, with models indicating larger average dollar benefits for the top income fifth.