Overview

• White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the proposal is under discussion and that no firm decision has been made.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has prioritized deficit and debt reduction before any payments, estimating tariff revenue at roughly $300 billion a year.
• Revenue figures remain contested, with Penn Wharton tracking $80.3 billion collected from January through July and Treasury reporting about $215 billion since April, while the CBO projects roughly $4 trillion over a decade and warns of higher consumer prices.
• Congressional authorization would be required to issue checks, and Senator Josh Hawley’s American Worker Rebate Act has stalled in the Senate.
• The Supreme Court will hear a challenge to parts of the tariff program on November 5, and officials caution an adverse ruling could force large refunds, with the ongoing government shutdown further complicating legislative timing.