Overview
- Treasury and IRS leaders forecast unusually large refunds in early 2026, with $100–$150 billion in payouts translating to roughly $1,000–$2,000 per household.
- Officials attribute the refund surge to retroactive provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill combined with 2025 withholding that was not updated to reflect the new law.
- NEC Director Kevin Hassett says the president will submit a rebate proposal to Congress in the new year, noting that any checks would require an appropriation and the timing remains uncertain.
- Nonpartisan analyses estimate a $2,000 rebate could cost about $280–$600 billion, a sum that would exceed projected tariff receipts and likely necessitate additional funding.
- The Supreme Court’s review of the administration’s tariff authority adds legal risk to the revenue source, while eligibility parameters for any checks have not been finalized.