Overview
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimates total refunds of roughly $100–$150 billion, averaging about $1,000 to $2,000 per household in the first quarter of 2026.
- Officials point to provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act such as auto-deductibility and no tax on tips, overtime and certain Social Security income.
- White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said refunds are projected to be the largest ever, citing Piper Sandler analysis that suggests roughly an extra $1,000 per filer.
- National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Americans would likely receive an additional $1,600 to $2,000 next year, largely through tax refunds.
- Analyses caution the boost will vary by eligibility, filing status and income, with the House Ways and Means Committee projecting $191 billion in 2026 tax relief and experts noting low-income households may see smaller gains.