Overview
- President Donald Trump says he is down to a final choice for Jerome Powell’s successor, with reported finalists including Rick Rieder, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and Christopher Waller.
- Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi recently shifted to give Rieder roughly 50% odds after his meeting with Trump and the president’s public praise.
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% at this week’s meeting, with futures pricing showing a very high probability of no change.
- Powell has disclosed an ongoing Department of Justice investigation tied to his testimony and Fed renovation spending, and the Supreme Court heard arguments over the administration’s attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook.
- If an external candidate such as Rieder is chosen, he would need a Board seat and Senate confirmation, while Powell’s chair term ends in May and he could legally remain on the Fed’s Board through 2028.