Overview
- Press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president remains committed to a $2,000 tariff-funded benefit, even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said no decision has been made and the payout could take forms such as tax changes rather than checks.
- Treasury’s Bessent floated targeting families under roughly $100,000 in income, but he stressed the cutoff and the delivery mechanism are still under discussion.
- Independent analyses say tariff receipts fall short of covering the plan at the scale described, with estimates around $300 billion if limited to sub‑$100,000 earners versus roughly $195–$220 billion collected so far this year.
- Any payments would likely require congressional approval, and a pending Supreme Court case on the administration’s tariff authority could force refunds to importers and erase the revenue base.
- Economists warn a broad payout could lift inflation and note tariffs already raise consumer prices, with Yale’s Budget Lab estimating an average 2025 household loss and betting markets assigning low odds of checks arriving this year.