Overview
- National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett says the administration plans to bring a formal proposal to Congress in 2026, while Trump told the New York Times checks could reach Americans late this year and claimed congressional approval was unnecessary.
- Customs data show roughly $200 billion in duties collected in 2025, far below Trump’s public assertions approaching $600 billion.
- Independent analyses estimate a $2,000 payment would cost between about $279.8 billion and $606.8 billion, with Yale’s Budget Lab putting a one-time, income‑targeted version near $450 billion.
- A Supreme Court ruling on the administration’s tariff authority could arrive as soon as Friday and may require refunds to importers, potentially eliminating funds for any rebate.
- Eligibility rules are not finalized, with officials describing a focus on moderate and middle-income households, and Yale estimates 2025 tariff hikes raised average household costs by about $1,700.