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White Christmas Unlikely, Models Say, as '100‑Year Calendar' Calls for Windy Holidays

Model guidance points to mild westerly patterns that make a white Christmas in Germany unlikely.

Overview

  • Operational forecasts cited by wetter.com and DWD commentary indicate low odds of new snowfall persisting through the Christmas period, even with a brief cooldown beforehand.
  • The 100‑year calendar outlines snow from December 3–7, rain on the 8th, icy conditions from the 9th to 19th, and windy weather from the 20th to 25th, but it lacks scientific grounding and has mixed reliability.
  • Official data show November was drier than average nationwide, with measurable snow largely confined to higher elevations such as the Vogelsberg and Rhön and to mountain areas in Bavaria.
  • DWD notes that warming has reduced the historical likelihood of holiday snow, meaningful forecasts rarely extend beyond two weeks, and Germany last saw widespread white Christmas conditions in 2010.
  • Some outlets mention a potential polar vortex weakening that could allow colder air later, yet current longer‑range outlooks still lean mild with any lasting snow mainly at higher altitudes.