Overview
- IMD data show Uttarakhand recorded no rainfall in December and early January, Himachal Pradesh had its sixth-lowest December rainfall since 1901, and Jammu & Kashmir saw very little rain or snow as northwest India received just 8% of expected early-January rain.
- Meteorologists attribute the shortfall to western disturbances carrying little moisture with shallow troughs and a higher-latitude track, while warmer conditions further shorten how long snow stays on the ground.
- IMD forecasts light to moderate precipitation over the western Himalaya and northwest India on Jan. 18–20, but it expects overall rainfall to remain below normal for much of the season elsewhere.
- Tourism has slumped with cancellations in hubs such as Auli and Shimla, apple growers face reduced winter chill, groundwater recharge and rabi crops are affected, and fire activity has surged with more than 1,600 alerts in Uttarakhand and hundreds in Himachal Pradesh and J&K.
- Longer-term assessments report record-low snow persistence in 2024–25 and four of the past five winters below average, and scientists warn of earlier glacier melt, rising equilibrium line altitude, growing proglacial lakes and heightened glacial lake outburst flood risk that could reduce river flows.