Overview
- An anonymous account created days earlier concentrated more than half of its roughly $34,000 stake in the hours before the Caracas operation, a pattern analysts said looked like insider activity.
- The U.S. mission was kept tightly held, with access limited to a small circle and a deployment that included about 150 warplanes and operations across roughly 20 bases, according to published reports.
- Contracts on Maduro leaving power by January 31 were priced near 8% before the strikes and surged after explosions were reported, turning the position into an estimated $400,000–$410,000 gain.
- Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing legislation to bar elected officials and federal employees from wagering on predictive markets when they possess or can access nonpublic information.
- The episode comes as prediction markets balloon to an estimated $13 billion in stakes, attract major finance firms and figures like Donald Trump Jr., and face scrutiny after prior big, controversial wins such as a reported $1.2 million December trade.