Overview
- Jefferies estimates slimmer passengers using GLP-1 drugs could save the four largest U.S. airlines up to $580 million in fuel costs this year.
- The firm models a 10% drop in average passenger weight translating to roughly 2% lower aircraft weight, up to 1.5% less fuel burned, and as much as a 4% EPS uplift.
- Illustrative EPS impacts include about 2.8% for Delta, 3.5% for United, 4.2% for Southwest, and up to 11.7% for American.
- Jefferies projects the big four will burn about 16 billion gallons of fuel in 2026, with a combined bill near $39 billion, roughly 19% of operating expenses.
- Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 pill is already reaching patients and a similar Eli Lilly pill is expected within months, while surveys report about one in eight U.S. adults using GLP-1s and Gallup pegs adult obesity at 37%.