Overview
- 53% of surveyed chief economists expect global conditions to weaken over the next year, improving from 72% in September 2025.
- South Asia ranks as the strongest regional performer, with 66% expecting strong or very strong growth, largely attributed to India’s momentum.
- India’s recent data underpin the optimism, with the RBI citing a “goldilocks” backdrop and reporting 8.2% year-on-year real GDP growth in the September quarter alongside near-zero inflation.
- A narrow majority of respondents (52%) expect AI-linked US equities to decline over the next year, even as nearly four in five foresee near-term productivity gains in the US and China.
- Debt and geoeconomics top the risk map, with nearly one-third fearing sovereign debt crises in advanced economies, almost half in emerging markets, and strong expectations of persistent US–China tech controls and more bilateral or regional trade deals.