Overview
- 53% of chief economists expect global conditions to weaken over the next year, an improvement from 72% in September 2025.
- Two-thirds see strong or very strong growth in South Asia, with India anchoring the outlook despite US tariffs and RBI noting 8.2% real GDP growth in the September quarter alongside near-zero inflation.
- Regional prospects diverge, with the United States seen posting moderate growth, Europe facing the weakest outlook, China showing mixed signals, and East Asia and MENA viewed as steady.
- On AI, 36% anticipate a significant boost to growth within two years, most expect near-term productivity gains in sectors like information technology and finance, and two-thirds foresee modest job losses in the next two years.
- Debt and trade risks loom, with global public debt at a record $102 trillion and elevated fears of sovereign crises as most expect tighter tech export controls, more bilateral deals, and a shift of Chinese exports toward non-US markets.