Overview
- Geoeconomic confrontation leads the immediate risk ranking, with 18% of respondents seeing it as most likely to trigger a significant global crisis in 2026.
- It also ranks first on the two-year severity horizon after an eight-place jump, reflecting escalating trade frictions, weaker supply chains and reduced multilateral cooperation.
- Wars place second among immediate risks but drop to fifth over two years, pointing to persistent rivalry and prolonged conflicts without near-term escalation in the rankings.
- Economic vulnerabilities worsen in the two-year outlook as recession and inflation climb eight places to 11 and 21, and an asset-bubble burst rises seven to 18, with housing markets flagged in sector analysis.
- Information risks intensify, with disinformation ranked second and cybersecurity sixth over two years, while perceived adverse impacts from AI post the sharpest decade-long rise, moving to fifth on the ten-year view; 68% expect a multipolar or fragmented world order.