Overview
- Nearly 53% of chief economists expect global conditions to weaken in the next year, improving from 72% in September 2025.
- South Asia is viewed as the strongest regional prospect, with 66% expecting strong or very strong growth, led by India despite trade headwinds and backed by an RBI “goldilocks” reading and 8.2% year-on-year GDP growth in the September quarter.
- Over one-third of respondents foresee significant growth gains from AI within two years, even as 52% expect AI-linked stocks to decline.
- Debt vulnerabilities are mounting, with nearly one-third fearing sovereign crises in advanced economies and almost half in emerging markets, and more than 60% expecting reliance on higher inflation and tax revenues.
- Trade policy is set to stay restrictive, with 91% expecting US tech export controls on China to remain or tighten and 94% anticipating more bilateral deals as regional agreements also gain ground.