Overview
- The report lands days before the Davos meeting, where President Donald Trump is expected, and reflects findings from about 1,300 respondents surveyed in August and September 2025.
- Geo-economic confrontation tops the 2026 list, with 18% naming it the most likely crisis trigger, ahead of inter-state conflict at 14% and extreme weather at 8%.
- The category jumped from ninth to first in a year, capturing worries over tools such as tariffs, sanctions, export controls, investment screening and subsidies.
- About half of respondents expect a turbulent next two years, roughly 14 percentage points higher than in last year’s survey.
- Over a ten-year horizon, climate-related threats dominate, led by extreme weather, biodiversity loss and critical Earth-system change.