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13h ago

Week 3 Becomes NFL Playoff Litmus Test as ESPN Favors 0-2 Chiefs

History says two-game starts matter far less than a team’s record after four weeks, so Week 3 begins the window when trajectories clarify.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts shake hands following the Chiefs loss to the Eagles and starting the season at 0-2, Sept. 14, 2025. (Charlie Riedel/AP)
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Sep 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid looks on during the third quarter of the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
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Overview

  • Since the 2020 playoff expansion, only about 12.2% of 0-2 teams have reached the postseason, compared with roughly 78.6% of 2-0 teams.
  • Falling to 0-3 has been close to fatal, with historical odds around 2.4% since 1990, putting serious pressure on the 10 winless teams.
  • ESPN’s projection gives Kansas City a roughly 51.8% playoff chance despite its 0-2 start, underscoring how team-specific models can diverge from aggregate history.
  • A five-season review shows teams with three or more wins in the first four weeks made the playoffs about 84%, while those with one or fewer wins advanced about 9%.
  • Media evaluations spotlight Week 3 as a slate of swing games, headlined by Dolphins–Bills on Thursday, Chiefs–Giants on Sunday night, and Patriots–Steelers as a potential AFC wild-card pivot.