Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Week 18 NFL Betting Split as Model Backs Packers, Jaguars to Cover and Expert Moneyline Picks Diverge

Conflicting advice reflects shifting motivation plus roster uncertainty, driving volatile divisional lines.

Overview

  • SportsLine’s 10,000-simulation model highlights Green Bay +6.5 at Minnesota as a strong cover play, projecting the Packers to beat the spread nearly 70% of the time.
  • The model also projects Jacksonville -12.5 over Tennessee to cover in more than half of simulations, with the total going over in 60% of runs.
  • Yahoo/Covers posts moneyline picks for every game using FanDuel lines as of Dec. 31, including Vikings to win over the Packers with a note that Green Bay may sit quarterbacks and start Clayton Tune.
  • Jacksonville enters as a double-digit favorite after seven straight wins and can clinch the AFC South, while Tennessee ranks bottom five in scoring offense and defense according to CBS Sports.
  • All Week 18 matchups are divisional, lines are time-stamped to current sportsbook markets, and the model’s slate includes a separate pick backing Seattle -1.5 over San Francisco.