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Week 14 NFL Model: SportsLine Backs Jets +3, Broncos -7.5 Against the Spread

Slim Week 14 lines put extra weight on weather or injury inputs in the model's projections.

Overview

  • SportsLine’s model simulates every game 10,000 times and reports a multi-season profit of well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 14 on a 49-33 run.
  • The model lists the Jets as a strong cover at home versus Miami, citing forecasted 34°F conditions and Tua Tagovailoa’s 0-7 mark at 40°F or below, with New York covering in nearly 60% of simulations.
  • Denver is projected to cover -7.5 at Las Vegas in nearly 60% of simulations, with the model also leaning Under, aligning with a handicapper’s slight edge to Broncos and the Under.
  • Week 14 features tight pricing across the board with no favorite above 9.5 points and five games at a field goal or less, while season-to-date ATS results remain roughly split between favorites and underdogs.
  • The model also built a five-leg parlay paying over 25-1 that includes Browns -3.5 over the Titans, and a developing note for Monday has Chargers QB Justin Herbert limited in practice with his status uncertain.