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Weather Service Signals Rise in Late-August Santa Rosa Storm Risk

Evolving short-range forecasts are essential to pinpoint the arrival of intense late-August storms

Overview

  • The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional warns that conditions are becoming favorable for the annual Santa Rosa storm to develop between August 25 and September 4.
  • Meteorologists say updated short-term models will determine the exact day and local impacts of heavy rain and strong winds.
  • An OCBA analysis of data from 1906 to 2023 shows Buenos Aires recorded a Santa Rosa storm in 57% of those years within the late-August window.
  • Climatologists explain that warm, moisture-rich air from the Atlantic and Amazon colliding with cold fronts and a low-level jet creates the atmospheric instability driving the phenomenon.
  • Provinces in central and northeastern Argentina face the highest risk of flooding, fallen trees and lightning, while Patagonia and the northwest rarely experience this storm.