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Weak La Niña Confirmed as Fifth in Six Years

Official readings indicate the cooling will likely persist only into early 2026, with regional effects hard to predict.

Overview

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reported on December 11 that La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue for another month or two.
  • Sentinel-6 satellite data processed by NASA’s JPL showed below-normal sea levels in the central and eastern Pacific on December 1, consistent with cooler waters.
  • Scientists characterize this event as mild, noting that weak ENSO phases make seasonal outcomes notably uncertain despite typical patterns.
  • Researchers say La Niña likely contributed to a string of tropical cyclones and floods in South and Southeast Asia that caused more than 1,600 deaths and at least $20 billion in losses.
  • Past La Niña years have coincided with large global losses—$258 billion to $329 billion, according to Aon—with risks spanning crops, energy demand and insurance pricing.