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Weak La Niña and Stratospheric Winds Point to Early Eastern U.S. Cold, Higher Snow Odds

An easterly phase of the QBO is expected to loosen the polar vortex’s grip, raising the chance of early Arctic air intrusions into the East.

Overview

  • Forecasters say a weak La Niña is in place heading into winter, a setup that usually drives more dips in the Pacific jet and favors colder, stormier patterns across the northern tier.
  • The FOX Forecast Center flags next week’s Arctic plunge as a potential preview of repeated early-season cold for parts of the Eastern U.S.
  • Guidance points to above-normal December snowfall for the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, Northeast and New England, with coastal systems capable of producing strong nor’easters when cold air is present.
  • Regional meteorologists highlight the roles of the Arctic Oscillation and polar vortex state, noting that a negative AO can open the door to major cold outbreaks.
  • WKBN’s Storm Team 27 characterizes the season as a weak La Niña with ingredients for cold shots and lake-effect snow but emphasizes variability and uncertainty in storm timing and strength.