Overview

• Employers added 22,000 jobs in August and unemployment rose to 4.3%, with prior revisions showing June payrolls turned negative.
• Futures and prediction markets now heavily price a quarter-point cut this month, with CME FedWatch near 97% and Polymarket around 88–90%.
• Major banks revised forecasts toward multiple 2025 cuts, with Barclays seeing three, Bank of America at two, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup at three, and Mizuho saying 50 basis points is possible if inflation undershoots.
• Fed leaders have signaled a shifting balance of risks, though officials remain divided as some flag tariff-driven inflation pressures and others await fresh CPI data before deciding.
• Crypto markets have leaned risk-on ahead of the FOMC and October ETF deadlines, with analysts noting elevated sentiment and warning of potential buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news swings.