Overview

• U.S. payrolls rose by 22,000 in August and June was revised to a 13,000 job loss, while unemployment ticked up to 4.3% largely because the labor force expanded by about 436,000.
• Futures now price an all-but-certain 25 basis-point Federal Reserve cut in September with a small chance of 50 basis points, according to CME FedWatch.
• Analysts cite higher costs and uncertainty from the tariff campaign and a sharp drop in foreign-born workers as key drags on hiring, with Yardeni estimating roughly 1.5 million fewer since March and the Dallas Fed finding nearly half of firms negatively affected.
• Manufacturing employment fell by 12,000 in August and is down about 78,000 this year, and federal payrolls have declined by roughly 97,000 since January, according to reports based on BLS data.
• Polling shows 57% disapprove of President Trump’s job performance versus 43% approval, with support eroding among higher-income voters, as a separate finding shows broad public backing for vaccines.