Overview

• Futures markets fully price a quarter-point cut at the Sept. 16–17 meeting, with some speculating about a larger half-point move pending next week’s inflation data.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 22,000 increase in August nonfarm payrolls and a 4.3% unemployment rate, with revisions showing June payrolls turned negative for the first time since December 2020.
• Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at easing and New York Fed President John Williams said cuts would be appropriate over time, while Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee remains undecided until he sees new inflation readings.
• Cleveland’s Beth Hammack and Kansas City’s Jeff Schmid caution that tariffs and policy shifts could rekindle price pressures, sharpening the committee’s inflation-versus-employment trade-off.
• A Board vacancy and a fast-tracked Senate review of Trump’s nominee Stephen Miran could tilt the committee toward faster or larger cuts if he is confirmed in time.